Verified background

Biographical facts with sources.

Opportunity and timeline

Where the person is documented to have been, and where the record is silent.

Strongest supporting evidence

The best case proponents can make from the record.

Strongest contradictory evidence

Evidence that tells against the theory.

Disputed and missing

Points in dispute, and records that do not exist or were not found.

Assumptions required

What a reader has to accept for the theory to work.

What would change the assessment

Evidence that, if found, would move the picture.

Bottom line

Editorial assessment (suspects pass)Could-have is not did. Ethnicity, poverty, mental illness, odd behaviour or proximity alone are not evidence of guilt; undocumented whereabouts are neither alibi nor opportunity.

Handwriting link rebutted by a document examiner.